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Paul Nawrocki – The Job Hunting Man

The personal side of the economic situation – people who are not at all accustomed to seeking work. Paul Nawrocki — The Job Hunting Man Paul Nawrocki has hit the front page of CNN.com but he still is...

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“These jobs aren’t coming back”

Finally the realisation is sinking in that this is no longer business as usual.  The economy will come out of this recession looking different. Job Losses Hint at Vast Remaking of Economy | NY Times...

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World Bank updates Global economic prospects downward

This revised forecast shifts from 2010 recovery,to an uncertain 2010 recovery.  Read through for data and forecasts on your country. World Bank updates global forecast This update of the projections in...

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What does recovery mean for Banks?

Banks are at the centre of the economy.  Business and consumers conduct their day to day business using money and they do this through banks.  Stating the obvious you may say?  This is why I study the...

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How much do we understand the meaning of less GDP now and forseeable future

The fall in GDP for Japan appears nothing short of catastrophic, yet on a visit there last week by Nobuyo, the effects of this change are not obvious to the everyday Japanese person. One change that...

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The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes.  This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to...

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Bank of Japan announces improvement in Japanese economy

In a surprising statement Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa announces improvements in the Japanese economy.  It is surprising following several years of slow economy even before the economic...

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“Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004″| FT

It appears the weakness in the UK banks that showed first when the crisis hit, were foretold 5 years ago in a BoE simulation. Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004 | FT Banking regulators identified...

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California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

Could we see the state of California go under … ? California – a nightmare vision of the future | FT The Californian budget crisis is so severe that all public employees are having to take pay cuts....

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Countries that are least affected by the Economic Crisis

An interesting survey of business reaction to the crisis, and which countries are least impacted.  Full ranking follows the map.  This explains a lot in terms of peoples reactions. Time will tell if...

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No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2′ move to manage a transition the American economy into...

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Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Fed Chairman Bernanke picks his words carefully here as the US treads that line between economic recovery and much higher interest rates which would produce other unintended consequences such as...

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Worries about government debt load in Japan

Following on the testimony from US Bernanke today, similar moves in Japan, the next largest world economy (for the moment), to reduce debt which remains at a world leading high. Japan’s long-term...

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Cabinet Office Pegs Global Economic Growth At Just 1% In 2010

I have read enough economic forecasts over the last 2 years to realise that this forecast from the Japanese government is the first time that government has recognised the obvious that the situation we...

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World Bank GDF highlights growing risks to economic forecasts

When thinking about the future and the economic position of countries that banks must consider, I listen far less to politicians and more to IMF and World bank forecasts. The use (misuse) of the term...

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Consumer mindsets in North America have shifted permanently with regard to...

After my last post, I thought it better to follow up with some facts to support my contention that this economic recovery is L shaped in Canada and US.  This is not meant to be an economic projection,...

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Future for many banks remains grim | Roubini

This interview with Roubini, on a visit to China, is wide ranging, and provides a good assessment of where we are in the economic cycle, why we got here, and importantly what to expect next.  In...

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China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal...

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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly | which is your bank?

In this video commentary on the US Banks results they note that while large profits are announced, any parts of the business related to the US consumer consumer is flat. This includes all retail...

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Plan for Sound Banking – Conservative White Paper | analysis

Here is more on the Tory plan for banking outlined in the attached White Paper [57 pages]. Politics aside, lets take a look at the merits of this proposal and how it aligns with the problems I have...

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Is China the next Lucent?

This is an interesting article over at Foreign Policy. It is interesting because it fits in the meme of what recovery looks like. Regular readers will by know by now I am firmly in the space that...

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China continues to display economic strain that will reflect on world economy

In the ‘how is the world doing’ category, this take (from the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of ‘The Next Asia’ (Wiley), due out in September) on China is consequential for us all. The west...

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Financial markets did not detect the deterioration of structural productivity...

A fascinating analysis of economic conditions prior to 2007, sugesting that dropping productivity and the concurrent increase in asset prices contributed at least in part to the economic crisis, yet...

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Abandoned Schools in Detroit | no sign of recovery here

I have mentioned more than a few times my belief that recovery is not a return to 2007. The new normal will create damatic shifts and new paradigms for bank planning. Detroit gets picked on a lot …....

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The Role of Financial Services in the Economy

A debate ensues in UK and to some extent in France, on the issue whether the financial sector is an underpinning of the economy, or a destabilising factor to the economy. The debate is quickly moving...

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The Canadian Economy Beyond the Recession | Bank of Canada

In this talk at Kingston last Tuesday, Tim Lane, Deputy Governor Bank of Canada lays out a quite lucid view [ 9 pages] of the opportunities and challenges facing Canada in recovery. Highlights: labour...

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Canadian Banks have a Productivity Gap relative to the US

Following up on the previous post covering the Bank of Canada’s view that Canadian Banks do not have a productivity gap [pdf 19 pages] relative to US Banks, here is the basis for that contention within...

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Google Internet Stats

Although on the co.uk domain only, this is a very useful new site from Google. One to save for future reference. Google Internet Stats This Google resource brings together the latest industry facts and...

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The Economist Special Report on the World Economy coins the term ‘Gandhian...

Under the heading ‘Gandhian Banking’ The Economist reveals the extent of worldwide government injection into banks at $432 billion by this spring and guaranteed bank debts at $4.65 trillion. Of perhaps...

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US deficit reaches world record levels, and rising

US deficit is now in Botswana and Russia territory in terms of record levels relative to GDP. The argument that this is not inflationary sounds to me like pushing water uphill. $1.4 Trillion Deficit...

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Bank retail operations have not recovered despite profits

In this piece at the NY Times, Krugman points out the obvious that despite profits, Banks’ retail operations have not recovered. The large profits we are hearing about are all centred in the Investment...

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Mervyn King calls for banks’ break up per “The Great Unwinding” post in Feb

It is with some relish I see Mervyn King agreeing with me from last February. King calls for break-up of banks | FT – Oct 2009 Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, called on Tuesday night for...

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A succint comparison of exiting 1980 recession, and 2009 recession

I thought this a particularly succinct view of the next 10 years view prospects for banks and their business planning. The view from New York | Buttonwood/ Economist The bearish view came from Josh...

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Bank of Canada joins other Central Banks is calling for caution

In the regular Monetary Policy Report the Bank of Canada keeps their focus on a low interest rate environment right through 2010. On inflation the view is mixed … The main upside risks to inflation...

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“Rally fuelled by cheap money brings a sense of foreboding”| ft.com

Gillian Tett voices her concerns here, based on background discussions with bankers. We are not out of the woods yet, despite the equity markets. Rally fuelled by cheap money brings a sense of...

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‘The Shape of Business – The Next 10 years’| CBI

Confederation of British Industry (CBI) have issued this paper. It is a short but useful discussion on what business ought to consider in the UK, but my reading suggests most western economies. It...

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Bank of Canada notes consumer credit remains a risk

Despite the general view that Canada and its banks is in relatively better condition that international peers, down side risks remain, and are relatively unchanged since Jun 2009. This statement sums...

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Biggest Contraction since 1921 | NIESR UK

This new piece of analysis from NIESR (UK) makes the point based on prior recessions, that 20 – 30 months are left, at a minimum, before we get close to where GDP was before this recession period...

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Bank tax, bonuses and unintended consequences

I was a little surprised to see the UK conservatives support a global bank tax. In any event the amount of the bonus at JP Morgan Chase caught my attention, so I took a look at their capital base. With...

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JAL imminent bankruptcy is yet another indication of a changing world...

I continue to be of the view that we are in the early stages of a revolutionary period and that the companys which survive will not be the ones that composed the DOW/ FTSE/ Nikkei indexes of the last...

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